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comment by am_Unition

This is probably the worst paragraph I've read in weeks, thanks.

An ability to mutate quickly/often might explain why some are testing positive and/or even relapsing weeks after triumphing over some version of covid-19. We should have better stats on that in just a few weeks. "should"

Most representative statistics so far(?)





mk  ·  1690 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That Iceland data is disturbing. If half aren’t symptomatic, but can spread it, there’s no end to it until herd immunity. And if immunity is seasonal, this is a new monkey on humanity’s back.

am_Unition  ·  1690 days ago  ·  link  ·  

How quickly can we sequence a mutated covid and develop a new vaccine?

How do mutations in covid correlate with ease of developing an updated vaccine, i.e. is the previous vaccine a good starting point? Will it take a year to respond to each annual mutation, rendering vaccines almost useless?

Presumably, there exist people with experience developing annual vaccines for influenza?

These are all rhetorical questions that I'm shouting into the e-wind, no worries.

b_b  ·  1690 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think it depends a lot on immunology, which we don't have a good handle on yet (and won't for some time). The reason you can keep getting the same cold over and over is that the disease is mild and doesn't evoke a strong antibody response, so many people lose their immunity in a few years. Colds, as we've all learned, are coronaviruses. So that's ok the bad ledger. But I've read that SARS left people with strong immunity for 10 years or more, so that's in the good ledger. Hopefully because of the severity of SARS2, we'll also see strong antibodies in lots of people. That will lower the vaccine barrier a lot.

b_b  ·  1691 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You're welcome.

How common is the relapse thing? I haven't read too much about it. I saw some early reports that were highly questioned by some experts, but I didn't keep up.

kleinbl00  ·  1691 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Speaking as a voracious consumer of information, we're fully in the fog-of-war phase. Until you see it three or four times it's anecdata.

am_Unition  ·  1691 days ago  ·  link  ·  

'bl00 is right, it's anecdata. But, as you know, that'd be our first clue that covid-19 joins the common cold and influenza in the list of "seasonal mutations we have to worry about".

If it's possible that covid-19 could mutate into a much deadlier form, I better start taking more psychedelics ASAP. Milk my time on Earth for all it's worth, and get on better terms with the grim reaper.