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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  1743 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Princess, the Plantfluencers, and the Pink Congo Scam

    Cause you know, enthusiasm leads to collecting which leads to price speculation.

OHHHHHH SHIT THIS STARTS AN ECONOMICS DISCUSSION

So... what's the value of a plant? The article mentions tulip mania because of course it does but whatever plant we're talking about it's just a plant. The intrinsic value of a tulip is very close to nothing. The intrinsic value of a human being is less than a dollar. It's the extrinsic value where things get interesting.

An upside down plane fascinates us because we don't understand why a typo should be worth a million and a half... except we do. It's worth it for the same reason we anticipate our odometers rolling over every ten thousand miles, or when the hour and the date form a pattern, or Mars and Venus in conjunction or whatever. It's out of the ordinary and we're hardwired for that shit. Rarity is its own reward for humans.

But in order for that rarity to have extrinsic value, someone else has to value it.

Watchmakers are the worst. They're hoarders. Relentless hoarders of odd little tools nobody can understand but since it's a watchmaking tool, you can sell it to other watchmakers for way way way more than you bought it for (because you probably bought it as part of 300 other things you barely understand as part of an estate sale). Fortunately "way way way" in this case means $7 for some thingamajingus in a ratty yellow box that nobody needs because one well-placed grenade on a well-timed Saturday morning would wipe out every watchmaking enthusiast in a city of twelve million people. There just aren't enough people who need your mildewed yellow box to drive prices up.

Enter Instagram.

I just typed "plantfluencer" and found four thousand likes for this thing. 40,000 followers. Frickin' House of Garrard only has 140,000 followers and they've got some pretty potent influencers. So what we're looking at is a "market" where 40,000 people give too much of a shit about a plant while 140,000 people give too much of a shit about the literal Crown Jewels.

Note that none of these 40,000 plant people have to know anything about plants. It's probably better if you don't. After all, the currency is impressing other people with a shallow experience of plants. And as the actual involvement in those plants starts and ends with "take pictures with your iPhone" the actual expertise with those plants starts and ends with "is it in focus."

Yet the likes are real.

Thus do we get people paying $300 for monstera where five years ago it was $6 a pot at Home Depot. Because there's a market. There are people who will buy, which means there will come people who will sell, and when the people who buy aren't discriminating the people who sell aren't either and here we are, with a fake plant scandal on Instagram.

    The postal clerk who sold the sheet later said he did not realize the image was inverted because he had never seen an airplane before.




user-inactivated  ·  1742 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Sooo . . . how salty would you be if Instagram discovered horology and then all of the sudden scrap watches started commanding speculation level prices?

kleinbl00  ·  1742 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Not going to happen for, again, economic reasons.

The horological market is well-developed. The Swiss moved 40 million watches last year, for an average price of a thousand dollars. High end is over a million. The "luxury" category starts at about $14k.

A healthy high end suppresses the low end. Nobody is going to spend $8k on a $2k Fortis because $8k will buy a reasonable Rolex. And yeah - there's certainly speculation (I still regret not buying a UG Ferrovie dello Stato for $400 'cuz they're at like $800 right now) but there's enough weird old stock that I can buy an Ardath Long Distance for $20 or an NOS Genta movement out of a $12k model for $350.

My whole point is that Instagram is creating an artificial market. If Sotheby's has been auctioning your shit for 100 years you can be assured that price discovery is healthy.

user-inactivated  ·  1742 days ago  ·  link  ·  

No. I get what you're saying, I'm just throwing a hypothetical your way. I mean, there's no insulating any market from the crazy and the weird of the world.

kleinbl00  ·  1742 days ago  ·  link  ·  

There is, though - if there's already "crazy" then "new crazy" can't take root.

I can get up on eBay and find a dozen orchids for sale right now for $500 or over. That's the sort of price you can see on the more exotic orchids out there - they go for that at orchid shows, they go for that at orchid societies, they're expensive but someone is gonna buy 'em. The market for crazy expensive orchidsis mature.

But if I get up on Instagram and cruise "#plantfluencer" I see two orchids after scrolling through pages and pages and pages of listings. They aren't hyping it to the moon because orchids are already steady-state. But I can look for Prayer Plants and see dozens and lo and behold, a couple dozen for $50 or more on eBay. I buy Prayer Plants for $3 from non-crazy people.

And that is my point - social media allows for weird little subcultures of self-referential weirdness to build up, which is what we're looking at here. They're actively in violation of the larger community that gives no shits about Prayer Plants because they've already got Hochstetter's Butterflies.

When Antiques Roadshow, Sotheby's, Christies and Phillips all know that your Oyster Cosmograph Daytona is worth more than the average office building, no amount of #watchfam bullshit is going to make your Fossil worth a fuck.