a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by oyster
oyster  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Donald Trump's campaign for U.S. President died today.

I want you to be right. I'm just a huge pessimist because as a young woman I've seen a lot of men get by unscathed while being sexist disgusting pigs.





b_b  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

There's sexists pigs, and then there's sexists pigs. I've spent almost thirty years in hockey locker rooms, and I've always been a mixture of embarrassed and proud that hockey locker rooms are full if the dirtiest pigs anywhere. It's a fun but crude place. I can say with full confidence I've never heard anyone brag about grabbing a stranger by the pussy. That should get you shunned anywhere.

thenewgreen  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm afraid you are right. The people that are supporting him right now will not be turned away by this disgusting audio. However, what I think might happen is that those that are lukewarm about Clinton may be more motivated to vote for her. There are no shortage of people looking towards Johnson that normally would vote Dem. I hope this is the catalyst they need to vote Clinton.

kleinbl00  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  
johnnyFive  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Be wary of putting too much faith in pre-election polls. My understanding is that people tend to fall back to party loyalty when it comes time to actually vote.

You probably also have a reverse-Obama effect. There were people who said they'd vote for a black man for president who in reality wouldn't. By the same token, I expect there are people who say they don't support Trump but secretly do.

kleinbl00  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That's not a poll, that's a poll aggregate, that demonstrates that exact "fall back to party loyalty."

One of those parties has never been about Trump. The other is just now determining what price loyalty.

someguyfromcanada  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I am not sure how that graph illustrates where the undecideds are going. It simply says that 84% of people are voting either Dem or Rep.

How does that translate into: "Clinton's lead is becoming safer"?

In a buried sentence: "With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure."

kleinbl00  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What it says is that the undecided voters are falling in the Clinton camp, and that Clinton has a strong lead in the polls. If all the votes fell 50/50 Democrat/Republican at this point, Clinton would still have about a 5% majority. If all the votes fell third party at this point, Clinton would still have about a 5% majority.

About fifteen percent of the electorate is undecided at this point. Clinton has about a 5 point lead. Trump has to pull in undecided voters by a two to one margin in order to make the election close.

That would require an impressive turnabout of public sentiment at this point.

Also consider: this clip has existed since 2005. It's been in somebody's Avid for ten years. And there's a debate day after tomorrow. Who the hell runs this shit on a Friday afternoon...

...unless you're trying to make the whole Alicia Machado gambit look like a warmup act?

The debate is going to be interesting.

onlythelonly  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I was curious why this was released on a Friday.

mk  ·  2975 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Understood. Hopefully this garbage has a chilling effect.