by kleinbl00

Ben Hunt is rapidly turning into Zero Hedge on amanita tea. But hey. Shamans are often thought-provoking.

Again, I’m not saying that the Quality derivative doesn’t exist as a real thing or that it isn’t an important factor in the history of successful stock-picking or bond-picking. What I’m saying is that the Quality derivative hasn’t mattered for eight and a half years with stocks and five years with sovereign debt. What I’m saying is that it might not matter for another eighty years. Or it might matter again in eight months. A Three-Body System is a chaotic system. As the boilerplate says, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In fact, the only thing I can promise you is that past performance will NEVER give you a predictive algorithm for future results in a chaotic system.

Keep your eye out for prognosticators.

(source - the S&P went from 1575 in October 2007 to 666 in March 2009)