Tomorrow the UK government will authorise aerial bombing in Syria. The British people were promised they would be presented a compelling case for entering yet another war in the Middle East. However, many important questions still remain unanswered.
1. We don’t understand our allies or our enemies. In Iraq we are supporting well organised ground troops in the Iraq Army and Peshmerga. In Syria there are multiple factions in loose alliances with their own agendas. The Syrian army remains the most organised force and is supported by the Russian military.
2. There are no safe havens and Daesh is increasingly embedding itself within civilian areas. Collateral damage is likely to be high and this will only increase the flow of refugees to neighbouring countries and provide an important recruitment tool for Daesh. I want to make conditions better for civilians, not worse.
3. The international community isn’t even close to agreeing a medium term political plan for Syria. Again, this is in stark contrast to Iraq where the internal community acted to support the democratically elected government. The end solution will be a handshake and we need to promote reconciliation rather than division.
4. Bombing by the USA and France to date has helped deliver tactical victories but has failed to reduce the territory held by Daesh in Syria. The UK doesn't significantly improve the capability of the ‘Western Coalition’ so why is our involvement so important?
5. The government is repeating the argument that if we fail to attack Daesh in Syria, we allow them to attack us at home. This argument ignores the fact that the 7/7 bombers were home grown and motivated by our military activities in the Middle East.
Cameron said he would present a compelling case... he hasn't. Dropping bombs may help appease our public conscious after the Paris attacks but it won't defeat Daesh - we need a more comprehensive plan.