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It assumes a market principles that have not been proven just hand-waved by neo-classical economics. 1) it assumes that fuel purchase is something that scales with price. ( Oh gas is 10% cheaper I will drive 10% mores).
2) It assumes full knowledge and rational actors. (the twin inanities that prevent economics from being anything but a pseudo-science). a. fuel is what is known as a grudge purchase. if I have 100 miles I need to go I buy 100 miles worth of gasoline to do it. Mostly independently of price and certainly not smoothly graduated.
b. fuel costs (in currency) are fantastically low for shipping a 10% dip in demand would be expressed as not enough to care about.