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Yes, I definitely shorted gold too early. I've also been playing with shorting China real estate, but again, it becomes an issue of timing. Barclays is forecasting a hard landing and BoA http://www.scribd.com/doc/66681591/China-the-Systematic-Risk... is suggesting a correction in financial sector and real estate, on the other hand, some of the China equity firms are saying that no hard landing is in the cards.
That's interesting about the icelandic volcano - I'm not sure I have the expertise or fortitude to invest based on geological phenomenon.