I think Putin has shot his wad - there has been every attempt to foment general war in the Middle East and it has failed. Support for Ukraine is broadly and deeply popular in the United States. Democratic economic policies have lifted millions of people out of poverty.

I think there's no reason for the country to break up - Americans like the freedom of going "fuck you California I'm moving to Texas" with the only result being a change in their state income tax.

There is a manufactured polarization at play that has been culminating for 50 years... but culminate it has. When even Florida starts walking back book bans you know people are getting sick of this shit.

Trevor Noah had an interesting observation a couple-three days ago. He noted that in Europe, citizens' deepest criticisms and political humor are for the politicians they voted for, not against while in America, your guy can do absolutely no wrong. I don't think that's going to change any time soon but the existential hatred gripping both sides politically has just run out of room - on the left you have "I think we should have a government" and on the right you have "Trump should have god-like powers" and the god-likes haven't accomplished anything popular with the general electorate.

Biden doesn't seem to have a decisive campaign ready to persuade voters that he's the man and he's taking a beating from the left and right.

Biden's best move is to keep the lights on while Trump implodes. Biden and his team have been winning elections since 1972; I'm not about to count them out.