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I think Biden has a narrow advantage. There is a non-zero chance one of the candidates dies or just gets ill to the point that public confidence in that candidate is shattered. The country will break up eventually, lots of directions that could take, might not be in our life time. The nation splitting up probably won't be something that is all bad or all good. Biden doesn't seem to have a decisive campaign ready to persuade voters that he's the man and he's taking a beating from the left and right.