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mk  ·  952 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Look for a nice aurora on Thursday (April 14)

Interesting. Pete Riley suggested a 12% chance of Carrington class event between 2012 and 2022

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011SW000734

Whereas another group says around 1% between 2019 and 2029

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8

I'm going to take the average and say 6%.

TIL that near solar maxima, the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima, there is about one CME every five days.