There's a Dan Ariely book about this. A few highlights:

1) You caught them once. They steal habitually. They've been stealing for a long time. They steal because they're entitled. They will keep stealing because it's their right.

2) Nearly everyone steals. Something like 20% of people don't steal little things. Stealing little things is part of our social nature, it's one of the things that gives us a sense of belonging.

3) Clamping down on the minor breakage that is a part of any organization will cause more breakage.

4) Reminding people to be honest will actually make people more honest.

5) Confronting someone for stealing and then asking them not to steal anymore will do more to ramp up their theft than anything else you can do. They understand intellectually they shouldn't steal, but spiritually they deserve what they're taking and forcing a reckoning of that dichotomy will double down on the intellectual justification to address the gaping spiritual need provoked by your contesting their right to theft.

The positive thing to do is put a hand-written sign on the fridge that says "we wouldn't take your beer without paying for it! =(" and literally nothing else. Don't mention it to the member, don't mention the cameras, don't mention it to anyone else, let it the fuck go.

And even that might be too much. This member sounds as if she's pretty deeply involved in the organization. And it sounds like she doesn't feel properly appreciated. My father had a saying - "if you don't fairly compensate your employees, they'll work out fair compensation on their own." Of course he stole a bunch of shit. And I took that to heart - one job bought me a brand new Fluke 87 without knowing it. Another gave me a full set of tools. Granted I kept their $23m in contracts humming so really, who's making out best here?

See how insidious it is?

We found the beer undrank and unopened in the yard in the morning - it was the clue that led us to checking the video footage actually.

Here's that thought process:

"I do a lot for this place. Also, I want a beer. Also, this place owes me a beer."

"Maaan, I do not feel good about taking this beer."

"I cannot return this beer for that is truly weird."

"If I do not drink this beer I did not actually take this beer."

They also are one of our most frequent user, spending about 5 days a week in the woodshop working on their business. They do a lot in integrating new members, keeping the space clean and other small and useful tasks. This member also has a tendency of feeling victimized when confronted with certain facts, and twisting reality to selfishly suit their personal needs. Like bringing up certain issues as community issues, while it's their personal gripe with someone.

I have an experiment for you

I'll bet she's there when other people aren't. Just work people. Give her a sixer of beer - when nobody else can see it, just from you guys to her, nothing to do with budgets or sales or organization or whatever - to show her you appreciate everything she's done.

I'll bet theft goes down.

I'll bet she becomes less defensive.

And I'll bet you'll have another few weeks worth of checking inventory to see if breakage goes down or stays constant.

All it will cost you is a sixer of beer.

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Either that or kick her out now because confronting her in any way shape or form is going to poison everything with every person she interacts with. It'll be like giving your organization leprosy.