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wasoxygen · 1437 days ago · link · · parent · post: How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters
No doubt there is some wishful thinking, and claims of betting may just be attempts at market manipulation, or trolling. The probability is non-zero until it's zero. PredictIt called my position on December 18, four days after the electoral college vote. In 2016, faithless electors hurt Clinton more than Trump, so that vote was not a formality. January 6 is the next opportunity for drama. If the betting markets work efficiently, it should not be irrational to bet for either side to win; the payoff for making a long-shot bet should be high enough to balance the risk of losing.