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Hey blackbootz, how are things? Welcome to August 2020. Let's see how your predictions worked out. The 10-2 inversion happened in August 2019. The Dow and S&P 500 peaked in February 2020. NBER called the recession in February 2020. Your predictions were very good, with a little allowance for timing! Yield curve inversion remains an impressive indicator.I place 70% confidence that a 10-year US Treasury compared to the 2-year US Treasury will invert sometime within a month of February 2019,
and then within 12 months of that inversion we will see the peak of the bull run,
and then 6 months from the peak will be a recession.
