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Nothing about this seems easy to predict to me; I am constantly perplexed. The CDC cases per day metric looks much worse than it did 12 days ago, just what I would think of a a second wave. But of course "cases" means diagnosed and reported cases, and that number depends on factors unrelated to health. Mortality seems like a more reliable indicator, "lagging" though it may be. By this measure the CDC reports improvement every week since mid-April, both for deaths involving COVID-19 and deaths from all causes. I note that these reports have a delay of "1 week to 8 weeks or more" so we should come back to check the 5,577 (COVID-19) and 53,678 (all cause) numbers that now appear for the week ending 5/30/2020.easy to predict