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I agree that it seems completely abnormal to the point it's hard to make a flu comparison. But I guess we have to wait for the numbers to catch up. Part of me also wonders what part bad government plays in this saga. Neither Italy nor Spain have had a stable government since the financial collapse of 2008. You can see what damage 3 years of terrible leadership has wrought here. What does 12 years (or way, way longer if we're not being generous) do? I could be totally off base, but places with a swift, sensible government response seem to have faired the best so far (e.g. Taiwan, Singapore).