a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment
kleinbl00  ·  1707 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: NY Fed says it will offer $1 trillion in daily repo operations for rest of the month

The part in question is "hyperinflation against what." The Weimar Republic experienced hyperinflation because the rest of the world said "you fukkas have no money and any number divided by zero becomes a wheelbarrow full of reichsmarks." This is also what drove (drives) Zimbabwe's hyperinflation: there's no way to estimate the intrinsic value of Zimbabwean dollars because Mugabe printed whatever he wanted to pay for a war against Congo and his government hid economic figures so that you pretty much had to take his word for it and the world didn't.

From a microeconomic standpoint, if you sell eggs, and I need to buy eggs, I need to make enough money at my job-unrelated-to-eggs in order to feed my egg habit for society to continue apace. If dollars were discovered to cause cancer tomorrow you would find that people would improvise something by Tuesday. Maybe a dozen eggs cost you $4 yesterday - if they cost half a Pokeball tuesday you aren't really troubled unless your wealth in Pokeballs isn't equivalent to your wealth in dollars. Things hit the skids when I need to buy my eggs from somewhere that never had dollars.

Forex trade of a lifetime right there. That's the world spending about an hour trying to figure out what Sterling is worth in a post-Brexit world. And it's been a lot more exciting than ever before because, well, there's a lot of shit to figure out and there will be some profound changes to the British way of life but fundamentally, it's not like a Brexit vote suddenly wiped out the British economy so the picture has been less... abrupt.

So really: if the Eurozone, England, BRIC, the USA all do exactly the same stimulus and all achieve the exact same thing with the exact same amount of elan and aplomb, our hyperinflation gets cancelled out and everything's all good. But if, say, the USA dumps $3T into the US economy to keep things afloat and China doesn't have to, then there will be a flow into Chinese bonds which will cause a massive rise of the dollar against the Yuan -

...except for the fact that China owns lots of US bonds and the Yuan is pegged to the dollar so that Chinese exports continue to be cheap.

Imagine a future in which the only three retailers in the USA are Costco, Walmart and Amazon. None of them are known for their stringent "Made in USA" requirements. Suppose the Yuan gets expensive - how the hell are Americans going to be able to buy cheap chinese crap with their wheelbarrows full of dollars? Or are they going to rush to gold, as the preppers have constantly supposed?

Note that those prices go crazy pretty much where people aren't losing faith in the government, it's where they're losing faith in the stock market. Interest rates went to 11% in 1980 because Volcker and the Fed decided to kill inflation and, although it's taken 30 years for people to stop spitting on the ground after they say "Volcker", it worked.

    The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

- "Satoshi Nakamoto", Bitcoin genesis block

So what are the odds? I dunno. I don't know where you draw the boundary around this system. I don't know what you get to call an externality. We're in the delta.