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Look at it like a particularly nasty flu season. It's at least twice as infectious as the flu, and about a hundred times as deadly. Flu infects about 10% of the population of the US every year - figure somewhere between 20% and 50% of the population of the US will become sick with COVID-19. It kills through pneumonia. 57,000 Americans died from flu in 2018, or about as many Americans died in Vietnam. Flu runs about 20 per 100k mortality while COVID-19 looks to be in the 2% range - we're probably looking at between 1.3 and 3.3 million deaths in the US. Spanish Flu killed about 700,000 people in the US when our population was 106 million. This is no joke.