There's a whole lot of catastrophe hidden in the phrase "in the long run."

That's real wages in the UK. The mess from 1500-1600 is the Reformation, Bloody Mary, dissolution of the monestaries, rise of the Anglicans and the general economic depression of the British Isles leading up to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms. The mess from 1750 to 1850 is the rise of industrialization and all it brought on.

I've now read two 200-plus page studies of technology and employment. They both make the argument that technology never affects employment, it affects jobs and that the only thing, the best thing, the essential thing is large-scale retraining. The study under LBJ from 1965 and the study under whatever conservative think tank from last month came to the same conclusions, and dollars to donuts the modern study is going to be ignored just as hard as the one from 1965.

The limo driver with 40 years of experience is fucked if he chooses to be a limo driver with 41 years of experience. He's also fucked if he thinks anybody is looking out for him. The problem we're about to face, in spades, is the percentage of people taking a long, hard look at their jobs and saying "will I still be doing this in 10 years? What can I do that will still be here and how do I start doing that?" is heartbreakingly small. Everyone else knows change is coming and thinks/hopes that they can hang on until they can retire.

And then change comes. And then they're fucked. And what they know is they did everything right and the system ate them alive.

And then they vote to Make America Great Again.