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Really, our point of contention is about market cycles and their causes. We both agree on the guessing game, but I'm arguing that the guesses get wilder when the market gets more chaotic. You don't see much "irrational exuberance" but it's possible you're not seeing what I'm seeing. You don't think a broad drop in housing is lower - yet the bankruptcy laws that led to it the first time (harder to discharge debt through bankruptcy) remain and now, the bulk of the workforce is dealing with student loan debt. So really, it comes down to what we think is important... and you're right - I think this stuff is important.
