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blackbootz  ·  2774 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The French Election Is Way Too Close To Call

    But you look at something like Bitcoin where fewer than 200,000 people in the entire world own any and some unknown quantity of it is in the possession of Chinese Tongs and where the world's largest holders are anonymous and the efficient market hypothesis is a joke.

Wow. I never thought of the cryptocurrency being a really good counterfactual to the efficient market hypothesis. I think the efficient market hypothesis is an alluring idea, but then bubbles pop and you realize it was all castles in the sky and huh, maybe the crowds aren't so wise. So EMH is a "bad" explainer, but the best one we have. Now that I think about, that's how you can describe all hypotheses and models--the least bad explanations we have at the moment.