a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment
mike  ·  3146 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The fake coin probability problem

Here's a related problem that helps to understand the coin problem:

I have two children. The youngest is a boy. What is the probability both are boys?

The answer is 1/2. Now compare to this:

I have two children. One of them is a boy. What is the probability that both are boys?

It is not 1/2, as it is not specified which child is a boy in the initial information. To solve this, we consider all possibilities for two children: BB, BG, BG and GG. Since we are told one child is a boy, we eliminate GG as a possibility. There are then 3 equally likely possibilities: BB, BG and GB. The chance that both are boys are 1/3, and the chance that one is a boy and one is girl is 2/3.

With the coin problem, each head flipped adds some information and the probability changes in an equally weird kind of way...