You are probably right that this won't lead to a larger regional conflict. However, just how desperate are the Saudi's for distraction? What steps will they take to prevent a collapse? Their crazy cheap oil has been a pain for US oil and natural gas development. The US media is increasingly unfriendly. But, Israel is not pleased with the US getting cozy with Iran... I do not think that Israel will sit by while the US swaps the Saudi Arabian alliance for an Iranian one without playing some cards of their own. I'm not saying that Iran and Saudi Arabia will divide Iraq and collide, but what if the Saudi's Sunni coalition against militancy decides to start 'fighting ISIS' in Iraq with boots on the ground? Will the Iraqi Sunnis be upset by that development? Will the Kurds? Will the Israelis?