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kleinbl00  ·  3323 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bad Day For Bacon: Processed Red Meats Cause Cancer, Says WHO : The Salt : NPR

Uhm... this is kind of a shitty article.

    The recommendation, Gapstur tells The Salt, is based on research. For instance, a systematic literature review on colorectal cancer published in 2011 by the World Cancer Research Fund found a statistically significant, 16 percent increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with each 100 grams of red and processed meat consumed. As the ACS points out, this is an amount of meat roughly equivalent in size to a deck of cards.

Really?

    The summary relative risk (RR) of colorectal cancer for the highest versus the lowest intake was 1.22 (95% CI  = 1.11−1.34) and the RR for every 100 g/day increase was 1.14 (95% CI  = 1.04−1.24). Non-linear dose-response meta-analyses revealed that colorectal cancer risk increases approximately linearly with increasing intake of red and processed meats up to approximately 140 g/day, where the curve approaches its plateau.

Okay, so there's the big NIH cohort study, one of the "800 epidemiological studies" that IARC looked at. But how many did they really look at?

    The largest body of epidemiological data concerned colorectal cancer. Data on the association of red meat consumption with colorectal cancer were available from 14 cohort studies.

So, IARC looked at fourteen studies. How 'bout the NIH?

    Since then, new results from ten prospective studies [19]–[28] have been published. This included studies in Asian populations [20], [25], [27], [28], a Canadian breast cancer screening cohort [24], a US multi-ethnic cohort [26], and four American cohorts [19], [21]–[23].

Awright... so ten of fourteen studies were already in the NIH study. What did IARC add?

    On the basis of the large amount of data and the consistent associations of colorectal cancer with consumption of processed meat across studies in different populations, which make chance, bias, and confounding unlikely as explanations, a majority of the Working Group concluded that there is sufficient evidence in human beings for the carcinogenicity of the consumption of processed meat.

...they read the same info and came to the same conclusions as the NIH did in 2011.

Let's review what the NIH found:

    The risk increase in colorectal cancer estimated in linear dose-response models was 14% for every 100 g/day increase of total red and processed meats, 25% in colon cancer, and 31% in rectal cancer. These results are consistent with those of the highest versus lowest meta-analyses. In non-linear models, colorectal cancer risk appears to increase almost linearly with increasing intake of red and processed meats up to approximately 140 g/day. Above this level, the risk increase is less pronounced.

So: a burger a day increases your risk of colorectal cancer by 14%. A burger and a half a day increases your risk of colorectal cancer by 21%. Nine burgers a day increases your risk of colorectal cancer by... 21%. Which was put forth four years ago, and which, really, surprised no one. And isn't nuthin':

Colorectal cancers are about a quarter of the cancer that's out there. Increasing a quarter by 14% is something I don't want to do, for sure... and since 2008 or so I've limited my red meat consumption to twice per week or less. Remember, there have been any number of (contested) links between red meat and heart disease, too. But what does NPR go with?

    The World Health Organization has deemed that processed meats — such as bacon, sausages and hot dogs — cause cancer.

Can you guys maybe double down on that?

    In addition, the WHO says red meats including beef, pork, veal and lamb are "probably carcinogenic" to people.

What did the WHO actually say about, oh, pork, lamb and veal?

    Red meat refers to unprocessed mammalian muscle meat—for example, beef, veal, pork, lamb, mutton, horse, or goat meat—including minced or frozen meat; it is usually consumed cooked.

So... not so much "zomg everything causes cancer", more of a "the study included the following." That sentence above is literally the only mention of lamb or veal in the entire article. Pork? One of the members of the study comes from the "National Pork Producers Council, USA".

Everything causes cancer. Some things more than others. Red meat probably increases your incidence of colorectal cancer if you eat a lot* of it (we're talking seven burgers a week), which surprises no one. Bit of a stretch from that to "bad day for bacon" which NO ONE IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD has ever called healthy.

Except, of course, Dr. Pig, whose motives should seriously be questioned.