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kleinbl00  ·  3325 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Could technology displace even specialized jobs?

    From where I sit it seems like human capital keeps dropping in value. What sort of livelihood might be available to most folks when the bottom pretty much falls out?

This is a more complicated economic problem than most people understand and/or are willing to address.

The basic complaint goes like this: "I have a job involving lots of training, yet technology threatens to perform my job better than I can. Therefore, I will starve." This misses the technological solutions to problems as well as the fundamental economics of labor.

Something few people consider is that 95% of any given job can be done by any given person... but the 5% of the job that can't is filled with peril and dire consequences (as well as towering opportunities for artistry and mastery). It stands to reason that 95% of any job, then, can be automated... but that supervision is necessary to cover the remaining 5%.

That 95% number is straight from the department of made-up statistics, but technology has always turned laborers into supervisors. And yes: take the 95% number and theoretically you can reduce your workforce from 20 to one. But are you going to pay him 20x what he used to make?

Now take those 19 people who you laid off in the name of productivity. You're producing just as much stuff as you used to - but for who? Assume every industry everywhere cut their workforce by 95%. If 95% of the population is unemployed and destitute, how are they going to buy your widgets?

Jobs don't disappear, jobs change. "Tailor" went from "great job" to "shit job" to great job in 100 years. All clothes used to be hand-made; now just the "bespoke" shit is. McDonald's uses unskilled labor because it's cheaper than robots but Umami and their ilk use skilled labor because you can make a better burger if you know what you're doing, and you can charge for it. You just can't sell as many.

    We have often heard about how tech will increase quality of life and leisure. So far this is not bearing out. Everyone I know is working longer for less.

Longer than what and for less of what? Because I had a job before the Internet or cell phones and I'm here to tell ya - a lot more work got done. You're right - you had less hours in the office and once you were free, you were legit free. But the foibles of the workplace experience aren't directly correlated with technological advancement.

Technology changes everything. For every job it eliminates it creates one somewhere else. Is your job safe? No, of course not. But your continued employment has always been predicated on your ability to perform and your ability to adapt. Hasn't that always been true?