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The Taliban has been fighting the U.S. military, the Afghan National Police, and the Afghan military for coming on 15 years with only small arms. They took a major city (Kondoz) within the last few weeks. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the power of an armed group. Not that anyone should want something so terrible as a civil war, but I don't think your argument is correct. The ham radio license is a very compelling comparison though. I wonder how effective a licensing system would be and what the qualifications to own firearms would be like in a system like that.