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Personally I think there's no telling which would come first in a general situation. Sometimes the message you want to bring across in your song is clear, so the lyrics surface in your mind first. Sometimes the melodic contours and textures are more solid in your head, so that surfaces in your mind first. Also don't forget that rhythm is another crucial part of the song. A pleasant-sounding sequence of pitches paired with interesting lyrics can still be marred by awkward rhythm.