There's actually a great model for what is likely to happen in Afghanistan.In Fact, I Know of four likely models. Yes, we live in the most peaceful time ever. However, the US is in the worst possible situation: If the US interferes with any conflict anywhere they are seen as belligerents who are doing nothing but attempting to expand the American Empire, the Pax Americana if you will. But if the US does nothing, countries cry out "Why don't you do something?" Perhaps this could be avoided if the US only entered into conflict if explicitly asked for assistance, but then what of American interests? You're stuck, guys. It's a Catch-22 until your military is either subsumed by a larger force, or you lose your reputation as a world military power.