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am_Unition · 3729 days ago · link · · parent · post: Major X-Class Solar Flare, Prepare For Auroral Activity
I'd wager around 36 hours. It's hard to say for sure, depends on the properties of the plasma cloud; density, speed, and magnetic field orientation. Here's my favorite model. They're expecting it earlier than I've predicted, and if the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented northward, like they're showing, the conditions aren't ripe for magnetic reconnection, which severely diminishes the amount of geomagnetic storming. Still, our magnetosphere will constrict from the force of the impact, which will give us a significant substorm, if nothing else.