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mk  ·  3749 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Why We Fight Wars

    And if authoritarian regimes without deep legitimacy are tempted to rattle sabers when they can no longer deliver good performance, think about the incentives China’s rulers will face if and when that nation’s economic miracle comes to an end — something many economists believe will happen soon.

That would be a new China. Aside from wrestling over Tibet, China doesn't have a history of conquest. Who would they possibly fight against? I can imagine some bullying over disputed islands, but not much else. War with Japan might be cathartic, but they don't have the navy for it.