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The fact that political questions are complex helps to explain disagreement, but I don't think it tells the whole story. There is little disagreement about ice, though water freezing is also a complex phenomenon. When complex questions are not political, people are often comfortable saying they simply don't know. You don't hear arguments about the Fourier transform at parties. (Or perhaps you do, and I go to the wrong parties.) I think that that the question is not "Why rational people disagree" but "Why People Are Irrational about Politics."