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I think their ultimate failure was in trying to fit new evidence into an existing conception of the situation. Once Bush et al. had declared Iraq and Saddam Hussein to be evil, no evidence to the contrary would ever be considered. Even as early as 2004, experts like Hans Blix were condemning the administration for an utter lack of "critical thinking" regarding the invasion.
http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2004/03/18_blix.shtm...